What should we expect from Keir Starmer’s first King’s Speech?
The King’s Speech will give us the clearest signal yet of Labour’s ambition in government but it will only be when we reach the Budget and the Spending Review that we will really get to see the hard choices that will define the first term of this Labour government. The menu sounds good but we’d like to see the prices.
Growth, planning reforms, employment rights, and the implementation of GB Energy are likely to be top of the legislative agenda. There will also be new Bills on employment rights, votes at 16, and rail nationalisation.
Then there’s some important leftovers from the last Parliament that Labour needs to go ahead with, including the Football Regulator, Martyn’s Law, renting reforms, and the smoking ban.
But some of the biggest reforms that Labour needs to make are not yet ready to be made into laws: the reviews on pensions and social care are still to come.
Those expecting an announcement on the two child benefit cap are barking up the wrong tree: even if Labour was going to reverse its position – which is unlikely – the Budget, not the King’s Speech, would be the place to do it. Instead we should expect the King to describe how his government is committed to tackling child poverty, without yet specifying how.
A quick explainer on the King’s Speech
Like many British traditions, the King’s Speech is both important and ridiculous. The pomp and ceremony is absurd: Black Rod, an official dressed in black lace, knocks on a door with a large stick; an MP is held hostage in Buckingham Palace; and all the other MPs make the short walk from the Commons to the Lords together in pairs of two as if they were primary schoolchildren on a school trip. The important bit is that the King has to read out what the government’s agenda will be for the next year or so.
Well, it’s what they hope it will be. Many of the Bills that the King reads out never actually make into law: the government either runs out of time or loses courage. As a result, each King’s Speech usually includes a chunk of policies left over from the last sitting.
The King’s speech in 1997 was a short and punchy blockbuster: cut class sizes, make the Bank of England independent, introduce the minimum wage, and hold referendums on devolution to Scotland and Wales. 800 words, big policies, and all of the key ones actually enacted.
By contrast, Rishi Sunak’s last King’s Speech was 50% longer and far less meaty. It meandered from small boats via football regulation to the licensing of London pedicabs. Many bills were unimplemented – including a Bill on tackling terrorism that Sunak promised the mother of a murdered son he would implement.
Some of the key new areas of legislation the SMF expects to see
On planning reform plans for housebuilding, Gideon Salutin, Senior Researcher at the Social Market Foundation said:
“The government will be making two big bets on housebuilding. First, that its reforms will motivate developers to increase construction and second, that the new supply will bring prices down. Planning reform is necessary if we want to build more houses in places with high demand. But there’s no guarantee that construction will actually take off in those areas, nor that the pace of that construction will be enough to bring down home prices. Social housing and affordability mandates have delivered those aims elsewhere, but Labour has not committed to either. Essentially the new government is beginning an experiment: is “unleashing the power of the private market” enough on its own to address the housing crisis? Our history shows it is not.”
On employment rights and the new deal for working people, Jake Shepherd, Senior Researcher at Social Market Foundation said:
“If Labour stays true to its commitment to introduce these changes within 100 days, we expect the King’s Speech to be replete with new employment law announcements. Some details are yet to be clarified, however, such as whether Labour will go ahead with the outright banning of zero-hours contracts, or if it will instead offer watered-down plans allowing workers to opt to remain on zero-hours contracts. The SMF would welcome key proposals being made into law, including the expansion of unfair dismissal protections, ending fire and rehire, and strengthening trade unions, as well as establishing a genuine living wage. Mostly legislative changes which do not require significant public financing, these should be rolled out at the earliest opportunity. Details on the creation of a ‘single status’ of worker, should it go ahead, are also uncertain.”
On GB Energy plans, Niamh O Regan, Researcher at the Social Market Foundation said:
“Becoming a clean energy superpower is a high aim for the new Labour government, but it is not an insurmountable task. It has promised £8.3bn over the course of the next parliament to help achieve this through the much anticipated GB Energy.
Investment from the company into renewables will undoubtedly be helped along by the expected planning reforms and reversal of the effective ban on new onshore wind. However, a little under a third of UK energy generation last year came from renewable sources, there is a long way to go to become an clean energy super power, and the initial budget to help us get there is relatively modest. It is also heavily reliant on the private sector stepping up and investing alongside the government, and there is some question over whether the government is stumping up enough to stimulate the further investment that is needed.”
On the National Wealth Fund, Richard Hyde, Senior Researcher at Social Market Foundation, said:
“The ability of the National Wealth Fund to deliver long-term economic benefits to the UK will depend in large part on how clear its mission is, the way its structured, led and operated and its scale. If the fund is to invest directly in businesses, perhaps own them outright, then the government should look to countries where similar state investment funds have a proven track record of success like Singapore’s Temasek. Key to success will be operational independence, insulating the organisation from political interference, and ensuring it is led by capable investment professionals. Equally important is a commercially focused long-term strategy, with 20-year time horizons for investments the norm and the ability to reinvest returns to grow the fund. Finally, the proposed £7.5 billion endowment is unlikely to prove transformational – at least to begin with – scale is needed to secure bigger and more sustainable returns.”
On plans to tackle people smuggling, Jonathan Thomas, Senior Fellow at Social Market Foundation said:
“Any new legislation aimed at people smugglers will be primarily to demonstrate that Starmer means it when he says he will ‘smash the gangs’. Actually smashing the ‘gangs’ though will unlikely be achieved through national legislation, and will likely require international cooperation that will be much more difficult, and will take much longer, to put in place.”
On plans to nationalise railways, Gideon Salutin, Senior Researcher at the Social Market Foundation said:
“The current rail system is nonsense, with government taking on most of the risk while private companies continue to control operations, which are poorly coordinated and inefficient. Great British Rail will change that by putting more power in the hands of a single body. But challenges remain. While the government will make commuters’ lives easier by simplifying fares and making discounts easier to access, its unlikely to drastically decrease consumer costs, and with no new money entering the system, those delays and cancellations which have plagued the last government could continue. The new government policy is a bold first move, but it still has miles of track left to go.”
On the growth and skills levy, Dani Payne, Senior Researcher at Social Market Foundation said:
“Skills and vocational training may not be the flashiest of the expected Kings Speech content, but Labour cannot meet their manifesto commitments without it. Neither Reeves’ promised economic growth nor Labour’s Industrial Strategy can be delivered without a highly skilled workforce. It is no surprise therefore that upskilling and reskilling are at the front of Labour’s minds. After years of changing ministers, priorities, projects and funding, taking a long-term approach to skills planning, coordinated by Skills England, will bring some reassurance to the sector, although it will not be without its challenges.
It will be important that Skills England remains a coordinating body, and does not undermine other promises for greater devolution. And if the aim is to bring all the key stakeholders together in true partnership and collaboration, it will have to be careful that there does not feel to be some winners and some losers at the table, as apprenticeship providers currently worry they are drawing the short straw of the Growth and Skills levy, whilst big businesses benefit from the increased flexibility.”
On the potential ‘Take Back Control’/devolution bill, Jamie Gollings, Deputy Research Director at Social Market Foundation said:
“The cheekily named ‘Take Back Control’ bill will push powers over transport, skills, energy and planning out to the combined authorities, empower the home nations, and set a greater presumption towards devolution. Here, the bill will draw on the work of Gordon Brown’s Commission on the UK’s Future, with its Council of the Nations and Regions also already being established.
It is a shame that plans to give these leaders a voice in a reformed second chamber have been kicked into the long grass. Labour also needs to make clear how the combined authority model will be extended, for example in the South East and in rural areas. Otherwise the UK will be a country with devolution for some and central control for others.”
Bills brought back from the previous Parliament
On smokefree legislation, Aveek Bhattacharya, Research Director at Social Market Foundation said:
“It won’t be the most eye-catching inclusion in the King’s Speech if the government brings back legislation to progressively raise the minimum purchase age for tobacco, but it might be one of the most significant. Having passed through the Commons once under the last government, only to be guillotined by the election before it could become law, Labour’s manifesto committed to getting the Tobacco and Vapes Bill over the line. The measure may now be familiar, but we should not overlook the significance of cross-party consensus on an internationally pioneering approach to realising the ambition of a smokefree future.”
On a mental health legislation, Jamie Gollings, Deputy Research Director at Social Market Foundation said:
“The last government shelved its Mental Health Bill in its final parliamentary session. Promises made in the 2017 and 2019 manifestos to improve treatment of people facing a mental health crisis were broken. Labour has pledged to update the legislation, to prevent the discriminatory effects of the current Act, with Black people far more likely to be detained. It is crucial that the new government sees this through.
They have also promised that the new legislation with “give patients greater choice, autonomy, enhanced rights and support” – welcome intentions, although the mechanism remains to be seen. Other plans for 8,500 more mental health staff, New Young Futures hubs and support in schools are encouraging, too. We’d also suggest Labour takes on Conservative proposals to expand access to Individual Placement and Support (IPS), and NHS Talking Therapies.”
On a potential rental reforms, Jamie Gollings, Deputy Research Director at Social Market Foundation said:
“Returning from election-induced purgatory, some form of Renters’ Reform Bill is certain to emerge in the King’s Speech. Labour has promised to ‘immediately’ scrap no-fault evictions so this is likely to be an early priority.
The question remains, how much further will they go? The new government is likely to ban ‘bidding wars’ on rental properties, introduce a National Landlord Register and extend Awaab’s Law to the private rental sector, setting standards for dealing with hazards. It also seems willing to go further than the Tories’ Leasehold and Freehold Reform Act 2024, branding the status quo as ‘feudalism’. Rental regulations are unlikely to feature, despite being championed by senior Labour figures such as Mayor Sadiq Khan. Without rent stabilisation, or at least a stronger rent dispute mechanism alongside banning no-fault evictions, there’s a worry that landlords can ‘economically evict’ tenants with severe rent hikes.”
On the ban on foie gras imports and hunting clampdown, John Asthana Gibson, Researcher at Social Market Foundation said:
“The new government has promised to revive a ban on foie gras products entering the UK, a pledge dropped by the Tories last year. It has also committed to banning trial hunting and the importation of hunting trophies. Given the number of animals concerned, these interventions are relatively minor, but their inclusion in the King’s Speech would signal that the new government has an encouraging degree of willingness to tackle animal welfare issues head on. To make the greatest impact on animal welfare, the new administration should strive to improve the conditions in which animals are raised on UK farms. To that end, it should be particularly focused on reducing consumption of intensively reared chicken.”
Contact
For media enquiries, please contact Impact Officer Richa Kapoor, at richa@smf.co.uk
